The annual average electricity consumption hovers around 100 kWh per capita. Generation stands at 2000 MW. Peak consumption is less than 1000 MW. The average consumption for Africa (outside RSA) is about 150 kWh. And for a wild comparison, the UK consumption has reduced from close to 6000 kWh to just under 4000 kWh. But of course Africa's blessings of geography render that comparison less useful. One thing is certain, though: the typical Ugandan must consume more electricity and pay for it. How? More consumption means a drift in the complex social dynamics of the country. And we must understand that complexity before attempting any prediction. The social physics of payment is even more complex. Politics might dictate that full cost recovery should lag, even when it would inspire increased consumption. And we're talking deep politics beyond the present actors. Also recall, the country must plan to increase generation despite the present surplus. How? What's the cost? That's a peek. So, next time you hear these noises about powering Africa, please stop and ponder. It's not simple. But one thing is true: The investment must be surgical, and that takes fine science.
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